We have already predicted two broad outcomes for favourite alliance NDA/BJP for elections 2014.This is broadly in line with our prediction last year on this blog when opionion polls were predicting 180-190 seats for BJP.
As we continue as our prediction series-one of our major goals is to introduce Robust Predictions Model.This will mean not only doing state by state prediction for BJP/NDA and congress for most states to cross check which of the two options predicted is likely to be close to actual outcome but filtering our predictions through many checks to get a more reliable prediction for elections 2014
In past our success has been mixed-some very good and better than opinion polls others miserably wrong.We identified 2 reasons for the failures
1.Preference for a party prohibits unbiased interpretation of Cards which are nothing less than magical.)(Remind me to post about BJP related cards for delhi elections 2013)
2. Testing seat outcomes in limited range ( as an example while for TN,WB,Bihar MP state elections since 2012 our prediction was qualitatively correct, it was short of actual seats for winners and in Rajasthan we predicted less than majority for BJP in 2013).Reason was we assumed BJP or the predicted winners like AIADMK,TMC,BJP-JDU, will get maximum seats few seats in excess of marjoirty,we thus failed to test possibility of these parties getting much higher seats.
These two deficiencies adjusted for plus using number of filters like stock market behaviour after reesults will help us to make more reliable prediction for elections 2014
3 Special cards drawn on outcome of elections 2014 indciate
a.Shocking exit for Congress and dramatic developments around results day of may 16
b.OR. please note this OR.BJP coming closer to lower level predicted may be denied access to power immediately leading to civil unrest,agitations,President type rule if possible.
possibility b is low as of now pending further tests using astrology and tarot which will follow in coming days
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