Showing posts with label Nielsen Opinion poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nielsen Opinion poll. Show all posts

Friday, November 22, 2013

will MP CM & BJP win for 3rd time in Madhya Pradesh


All Opinion Polls predicting huge and improved win and seat tally for BJP in Madhya Pradesh after 25 November polling results declared on December 8th


while due to hand injury detailed seat predictions cannot be done at this time our Tarot based predictions show that BJP will get fewer seats than 2008 and 30% probability of both Congress and BJP neck to neck

 1 Our Tarot Predictions show that with 70% likelihood BJP will get about 130 seats while Congress will get about 85-90

2. Second less likely outcome is about 110 seats for BJP but still in - No 1 position

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Who will be India's Prime Minister after 2014 - prediction

Cartoon by Satish at cartoonistSatish.blogspot.com

We have used a new approach that answers or predicts 2 key questions all politically interested players are asking or answering using variety of approaches biases hunches.   Instead of trying to predict seats by Party or major alliance such as UPA or NDA or its major constituents we aimed to predict Who will be India's prime Minister after 2014 elections. we used over dozen questions to get some idea   This also helped us to answer approximate Party position by seats to leader of the pack   -In interpreting answers key point is to see where all the questions are pointing rather than focus on Just one or two questions

In terms of age Prime Minister likely to be .61-70 or 41-50 age group considering 31-90 years range   PM likely to be Male   PM likely to be from West Central w south India   PM likely to be holding position in Govt at State or Central level as a Minister .Here the card is very InterestingIy indicating .He is holding a Leading post as PM CM or a very Important post In progressive state or Finance Dept   We checked 3-7 Leaders in Congress BJP top Leaders (only Heads) of regional parties except CPM SAD


We also checked Prez Pranab as compromise candidate   In congress very interestingly no positive card showed for anyone positive Cards showed up for Prez Mulayum Singh and Jayalalitha .Shri Nitish Kumar was thumbs down but most key leaders of BJP esp CMs cards were positive Including Ms Swaraj but negative for Shri Advani   the Acid Test! NDA Shows continuous positive Cards from 180 onwards but indication is it will be just short of 220 Second level Indicated of 250+ is unlikely Another Acid test: story of life question posed Showed Tough PM with difficult & humble circumstances. which though not unique matches persona profile of Narendra Modi Hence We conclude Narendra Modi as next PM amidst some tug of War with NDA most likely about 217. This does not contradict Time Now C voter survey predicting 189 since Modi's rallies have just begun and NDA has not opened its bag of policy agenda .   .