We have already
tweeted several aspects of predictions about
Bihar based on Tarot and Astrology. These predictions go against most
of surveys(many of which have kept
changing over time leading up to predictions ,satta bazaar estimates
.
One reason of not managing to get right seat predictions in
some states like Rajasthan, Bihar,West Bengal Tamil nadu ,MP has been our
presumption that no party will get beyond a certain number.In all these cases
winners actually notched up beyond the assumed maximum limit.
Hence we did not make this mistake again and tested possible
seats going up to 200/243 for each major alliance MGB and NDA. But we still
think extreme numbers are unlikely in Bihar elections 2015.
Reason is Astrology.Though we have used Tarot based
probabilistic model to test possible seats for NDA and MGB and again for BJP and JDU
individually Astrological considerations rule out extreme or thumping win for
NDA or MGB.Why?
Because Shir Nitish Kumar and BJP have same ascendant of Gemini.This
means that relative planetary transits
for both will be identical. Only difference is running Mahadashas or sub dashas
or planetary periods. Mahadasha of both is mixed suggesting overwhelming
performance by either i s unlikely. Historicaly testing this astro theory we
find JDU and BJP had almost same success percentage since 2005 though JDU won
more seats due to higher seat share. Extending this historical result means
both parties are literally in same boat with difference that will vary according
to planetary periods at time of elections/results.In case of 8th November
results we think extreme performance by either party is unlikely.
Transits on 8th November does not indicate great
joy for either but astro-probabilistically Nitish Kumar chances of remaining in
power higher than NDA coming to power
Tarot predictions suggest 50-70 as most likely range of BJP
seats with maximum of 81 while JDU seats are not clear or helpful( 46 or 65),NDA
likely to get 101,109,114 seats in decreasing probability and Government
formation is likely based on horse trading.
Further Tarot exercise suggest very close finish between NDA
and MGB with MGB marginally ahead.
Parties outside both alliance not likely to get more than 20
seats with new comer Akshay Verma may
open account with 2 seats and NDA
partner LJP led by Ram Vilas Paswan may
get 15 seats.RJD and Congress seen decimated in terms of seats won
Bihar could see a Government that is constrained in many
ways
Twitter @SujatKamal
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