BTST trade no 4:Should you short or go long at market closing today?

sensex down 190 at 17919 points nifty down 52 points at 5404 with ten minustes of trade left

should you buy or sell for profits at todays closing prices on 4th  aug

Predictions: markets will be volatile on 4th. a short position taken today in index is likely to be profitable in early morning  trade as market will drop fast in negative zone  even if its open in positive zone (less likely)

however long positions will become profitable by mid day or earlier as market likely to move both above and below todays closing

disclaimer: this is an experimental series on BTST with unverified success rate.high risk traders can use this prediction judiciously at own risk.

Rules of Virtual Trading Fund

1. It will start with a capital of Rs 10 lacs ( this is to take account of large security requirment for US day trading- trading capital canbe as smallas Rs 1 lac if trading in Indian markets only)

2. Trades will be mostly in Index options without any stop loss at time of prediction/trading order and may include stock trades,trades longer than day with prior indication, trades in commodities/metals/oil/currency may eventually be added.

3. When Predictions are put up ,trades may not be carried out- this does not indicate any risk . When trades are carried out without separate predictions, it will be mostly based on predictions. Our trades willreflect our "risk". Any trades by reader should be in accordance with his/her risk..

4.Strategy is not being enunciated here- it is open ,will evolve over time but one can expect lower risk-high value trades, low value trades-highrisk combination in beginning trades

5. Fund value will be declared every week without adjusting for interest earned on idle funds.

Further rules added ( Oct 9)

6. No brokerage cost. This is offset by ignoring interest on idle funds

7. US=Rs exchange rate fixed at Rs 44= 1 US$
8. Trading in US options per contarct will imply 100 share s of underlying. so if 10 lots pruchased means 1000 underlying shares purchased. Nifty options is in lots of 50. Mini options will not be traded to make it simple.
9. As live quotes on US market is fee based, and Indian quotes sometimes not on time/unrleiable. We assume:  2 point change in Nifty gives Re1 profit or change in premium on options. 5 point change insensex gives same Rs 1 profit per share.

10 In US markets becauseof of lack of free live quotes on options premium  we assume, 5point change in nasdaq comp gives $3 in profits, 10 point change in DIA gives $2 and 3point chnage inSP 500 gives $1 in profits. This assumption may be changed once more information is available

11. assumptions on commodities, metals, oil futures etc wil be given once trading commences in these.

Indian Stock Market prediction August 5

Trading is in progress and nifty in volatile/choppy session closeto zero. Nifty may rebound in last hour of trade. Buy Nifty call options if nifty reaches -2 and -10 but wait until 2.30pm for a deeper correction and buy call options with trailning stop loss of 3 points to pick lowest values for call optionbs

Usual Risk Responsibility disclaimer applies